For years, the former Vallco Mall property sat largely vacant in the middle of Cupertino. The Rise is the long-planned redevelopment of that site: a major mixed-use project that is expected to bring thousands of homes together with office space, retail, restaurants, public gathering areas and new streets and open space.
As the project moves forward, homeowners and buyers are asking an important question: how could The Rise affect Cupertino home values?
The full answer will not be known until more of the project is built, occupied and operating. But there are already several factors worth understanding — some that could strengthen nearby property values over time and others that buyers and sellers should continue to watch carefully.
What The Rise Currently Includes
The Rise is being implemented as an SB 35 mixed-use development. Under the project's current approved framework, it continues to include:
- 2,669 total homes, including 356 affordable homes
- Approximately 1.475 million square feet of office space
- Approximately 226,600 square feet of retail uses
- Parks, public gathering areas and other open-space improvements
- New streets, circulation improvements and infrastructure across the former Vallco site
The project has evolved through several approved modifications, so buyers and homeowners should distinguish between older Vallco plans and the current version of The Rise. I continue to track those changes on my complete guide to The Rise and Town Square West and my The Rise LIVE Updates page.
The Case That The Rise Could Support Cupertino Home Values
Several long-term factors could make a completed and successful Rise project beneficial to surrounding Cupertino real estate.
A More Walkable Center Could Add Something Cupertino Has Historically Lacked
Cupertino has long commanded a substantial housing premium because of its location in Silicon Valley, access to major employers and public-school demand. What the city has had relatively little of is a large, walkable mixed-use center combining housing, restaurants, retail and public gathering areas.
If The Rise ultimately delivers an active town-center environment rather than simply a collection of buildings, homes within convenient walking distance could gain an amenity that does not exist at the same scale today.
That does not mean every nearby property automatically becomes more valuable. Proximity to restaurants, open space and shopping can be attractive, while proximity to loading areas, traffic, construction or future buildings can have a different effect. The impact will likely vary significantly by street and individual property.
Cupertino's Housing Demand Remains Structurally Strong
The addition of 2,669 homes is significant, but The Rise does not eliminate the factors that have historically supported Cupertino real estate values.
Those include limited single-family housing supply, proximity to Apple Park and other Silicon Valley employment centers, demand associated with Cupertino Union School District and Fremont Union High School District, and the difficulty of adding large amounts of new housing elsewhere in an already developed city.
The Rise will add meaningful supply, particularly in attached housing, but buyers comparing an existing detached Cupertino home with a new condominium or townhome at The Rise will still be evaluating very different property types.
Mixed-Use Development Can Change How Buyers View a Location
Successful mixed-use districts elsewhere in the Bay Area demonstrate that a major redevelopment can change the perception and use of an area. Santana Row in San Jose, downtown Walnut Creek and parts of Emeryville all illustrate how residential development combined with restaurants, retail and public space can create a new destination.
The comparisons are not exact, and The Rise will develop under its own market and planning conditions. But they show why the quality of execution matters. A completed, active district is very different from a partially occupied project surrounded by ongoing construction.
What Buyers and Homeowners Should Watch Carefully
Construction Timing and Phasing
The Rise is a large, multi-phase project. Individual buildings and uses will not necessarily be completed at the same time.
That means nearby homeowners may experience several different stages: active construction, partial occupancy, continuing work on adjacent blocks and eventually a more mature district.
A home beside an active construction zone can trade differently from the same home after nearby streets, parks, retail and residential buildings are complete. Buyers purchasing today are therefore evaluating both the current environment and a future version of the neighborhood that is still evolving.
The Office Component
The project continues to include approximately 1.475 million square feet of office space. How that space is ultimately developed, leased and occupied will matter to the overall character of The Rise.
A strong employment component can generate daytime activity and support restaurants and retail. A slower office market could change the pace at which portions of the project are built or occupied.
This is one reason I would not evaluate The Rise solely from its residential unit count. The long-term impact on Cupertino will depend on how the residential, retail, office and public-space components function together.
Traffic and Circulation
Adding thousands of residents together with retail, office and other uses will change traffic patterns around Stevens Creek Boulevard, North Wolfe Road and surrounding streets.
New streets and circulation improvements are part of the redevelopment, but buyers near the site should still evaluate individual locations carefully. A property with convenient access to The Rise may benefit from walkability while another property closer to a major access point could experience additional traffic.
Schools and Attendance Boundaries
Public schools remain an important factor for many Cupertino buyers. The project will add new households over time, but buyers should avoid assuming that a particular Rise residence or nearby property is assigned to a particular school based solely on proximity.
Cupertino Union School District and Fremont Union High School District attendance boundaries and enrollment policies should be verified for a specific property when school assignment is important to a purchase decision.
Competition From New Homes
The Rise will also create new competition within parts of Cupertino's housing market.
Existing condominium and townhome owners may eventually compete with brand-new residences offering newer construction, modern amenities and a mixed-use location. At the same time, established communities may offer advantages such as larger floor plans, lower density, mature landscaping or known HOA histories.
The impact will depend heavily on how the new homes are priced.
For a closer look at the existing attached-housing market, see my Cupertino condos and townhomes guide.
What Buyers Near The Rise Should Do Now
If you are considering a home near the former Vallco site — including Rancho Rinconada, the City Center area or properties along and near Stevens Creek Boulevard — there are several practical steps worth taking.
- Understand the current project rather than an older Vallco plan. The Rise has changed through multiple modifications, including changes to housing, office space and the affordable component.
- Look at the individual property's relationship to the project. Walking distance to shops and parks can be an advantage, while construction access, traffic or a future building immediately nearby may affect a property differently.
- Walk the area at different times of day. Traffic, construction activity and street conditions are easier to understand in person than from a map.
- Compare sales by proximity. A good comparative market analysis can help determine whether the market is currently assigning a discount, premium or essentially no difference to homes closest to the site.
- Think beyond the next year or two. Buyers purchasing beside a major redevelopment should make sure their expected ownership timeline is compatible with continued construction and project phasing.
Could The Rise Affect Single-Family Homes Differently From Condos?
Yes.
The Rise's largest direct competitive effect is likely to be on the attached-housing market because much of the new ownership and rental inventory will be in multifamily buildings.
Existing Cupertino condominium and townhome owners may eventually have to compete with new construction at The Rise. That competition could place more importance on HOA costs, building age, amenities, parking, floor plans and location.
Detached single-family homes represent a much more limited product in Cupertino. A buyer who specifically wants a private lot and detached house is unlikely to view a new condominium at The Rise as a direct substitute.
That distinction is important when discussing whether thousands of new units automatically mean lower values throughout Cupertino. Different housing types serve different buyers.
What About Homes That Will Eventually Be Sold at The Rise?
Town Square West includes a planned for-sale housing component, although a public market-rate sales launch, detailed ownership floor plans and pricing have not yet been announced.
I am tracking that portion of the project separately for prospective buyers. See my The Rise Cupertino Homes for Sale Buyer Guide for the information buyers should be following before the ownership program begins.
The Bottom Line
The Rise has the potential to materially change the center of Cupertino.
If the project ultimately delivers an active combination of housing, restaurants, shops, public spaces and employment, some nearby homes could benefit from a more walkable and amenity-rich environment.
But that outcome should not be treated as automatic. Construction phasing, traffic, office demand, new-housing competition and the quality of the completed public realm will all influence how individual properties are affected.
The most useful question for a buyer or homeowner is therefore not simply, "Will The Rise increase Cupertino home values?"
It is:
"How is this particular property positioned relative to The Rise today, during construction and after the surrounding blocks are completed?"
That is a much more property-specific question — and ultimately the one the market will price.
Talk With Bruce About Cupertino Real Estate and The Rise
If you are buying or selling near The Rise, I can help you look at recent comparable sales, proximity to the project, current construction, existing Cupertino alternatives and the potential effect of future development on an individual property.
Enjoy this blog post? Click here to subscribe for updates
Leave A Comment